The wildcard seats of the 2025 federal election
Marginal seats play the biggest role in determining which party forms government. (ABC News)
In the battle between the major parties trying to form government, marginal seats are the focus.
It's where the advertising is concentrated, and the party leaders tend to spend their time.
They have the biggest hand in determining which party will form the next government.
As the crossbench grows and the independent and minor party vote along with it, the two-party preferred vote is becoming a less useful predictor of how the electorates will fall.
Australian politics is getting increasingly fragmented, and beneath the arm-wrestle for government, there are lots and lots of interesting contests where local issues and candidates could throw up unexpected results.
We're not saying these seats are likely to change hands, but we're keeping an eye on them because they're some of the most likely candidates for surprises.
And if these seats change hands, we're looking at a very different electoral map.
Here are just six of the potential wildcards of election 2025.
Franklin
The seat in southern Tasmania has been held by Labor since 1993, but Labor MP Julie Collins is facing a stronger fight than usual this election from a candidate who has campaigned against the salmon industry that operates on the western end of the seat.
Former ABC journalist Peter George has launched a campaign heavily influenced by environmental issues, and is trying to tap into community anger on the salmon industry. The issue blew up in March, with actor Leonardo DiCaprio even weighing in, as Labor and the Coalition passed laws in federal parliament allowing the industry to continue in Macquarie Harbour.
A lot would have to go Peter George's way for him to win, but the primary votes will tell us quite a bit about how locals are feeling about the issue.
The Greens candidate suspended his campaign after nominations had closed due to his non-renounced New Zealand citizenship. That could help Peter George, and former Greens leader Bob Brown has even endorsed the independent. However, the Liberal Party is recommending voters preference Labor over the independent. That's likely to hurt his chances.
Former Liberal member and current Clarence mayor Brendan Blomeley is also running in this seat as an independent, adding another complication.
Dickson
Anthony Albanese paid a visit to Liberal leader Peter Dutton's seat of Dickson on the very first day of this campaign. Whether that was out of a genuine view Labor can win the seat, or some early-campaign mind games, we can't be sure.
Mr Dutton holds the seat on a thin margin — just 1.7 per cent — but conventional wisdom would suggest he shouldn't have much trouble retaining the seat. He's now got the much higher profile of being opposition leader, and first-term governments usually lose votes rather than gain them.
Dickson has been a marginal seat for much of the time Mr Dutton has held it. This is not the first time Labor has made an effort to win the seat, and they haven't been successful yet. An opposition leader has also never lost their seat at a federal election.
But Labor has certainly been wanting people to think this seat is in play. It has claimed to have upped its advertising spend in the seat, and it has sent senior frontbenchers to Dickson regularly through the campaign.
Independent Ellie Smith also has the potential to disrupt things and peel votes away from Mr Dutton.
Calare
This seat in the central west of NSW is an interesting three-horse contest. Andrew Gee was first elected as a Nationals MP in 2016, but quit the party in 2022 over its opposition to the Voice to Parliament referendum and is running in this election as an independent.
Can his personal profile as the incumbent MP win over the naturally-Nationals voting electorate and see off a challenge from the party's candidate Sam Farraway?
This race is made even more unpredictable by independent Kate Hook, who is running for the second time after coming second in the seat in 2022. Could Andrew Gee and Sam Farraway divide the conservative vote and improve Kate Hook's position in the count?
Moore
In Perth's northern suburbs, Moore is a traditionally safe Liberal seat. Having said that, the massive swings to Labor in WA last election put this seat on a margin of just 0.9 per cent. You'd expect this high Labor vote to retreat this year, but there are other factors to consider in this seat.
Since 2013, Ian Goodenough has been the member for Moore. But he lost Liberal preselection to Vince Connelly, who used to represent the now-abolished seat of Stirling.
Ian Goodenough is running as an independent and is not recommending preferences to any candidate. The Labor candidate is Tom French, and independent Nathan Barton has received funding from Climate 200 as well.
Watson
This seat, along with the seats of Blaxland and Calwell, is one to watch to see if the government handling of the Israel-Gaza war has had an impact on Muslim voters.
A group called The Muslim Vote is backing independent candidates in each of those seats, hoping to mobilise the community over the conflict. They're hoping to replicate a similar exercise in last year's UK election, where five independent pro-Palestine MPs defeated Labour incumbents. But that's a tougher proposition in Australia.
These are all relatively safe Labor seats, and it seems unlikely that Liberal voters will preference these candidates in great numbers, so independent wins here are probably unlikely. But watch the primary vote to see if Labor takes a hit there.
Richmond
Covering the north-east tip of NSW including Byron Bay, Ballina, Tweed Heads and Murwillumbah, this used to be a reliably conservative seat but there's been a leftward shift.
Labor has held the seat continuously since 2004. On paper, the government holds this seat against the National Party with a safe margin of 8.2 per cent. But if there had been a primary vote swing from Labor to the Greens of just 1.3 per cent, Labor's Justine Elliot would've been excluded from the count with the Greens going on to win the seat.
The Greens are naturally hopeful of a gain here. For the second time, performer and comedian Mandy Nolan is their candidate.