The state of play as Tasmanian election 'no-one seems to want' is called

Tasmanians are off to the polls for a rare mid-winter election, one that no-one particularly seems to want.

How voters make their decision on July 19 may be influenced by who they regard as responsible for sending them to the polls. 

This was not an election that needed to happen, even after Labor's no-confidence motion in the premier passed earlier in June.

Premier Jeremy Rockliff could have resigned and allowed a Liberal colleague to attempt to form government. 

His colleagues could have pushed him out the door. 

Labor could have attempted to gain the confidence of the house and form government instead.

Perhaps sensing that all those options were fraught with difficulty and may have only been staving off the inevitable, the major parties have opted to roll the dice on an election barely a year since the last one and see what the next parliament brings.

The question is: Will Tasmanians endorse the government of Jeremy Rockliff, or will they, perhaps inspired by the season, opt for Winter?

Or, will the state end up in much the same place as it currently is?

Polling favours Labor but there are complexities

This election represents Labor's best chance of returning to the government benches since it lost power in 2014.

But unless sentiment shifts, it would have a fragile grip on power and Dean Winter would likely still need to negotiate his way to the premier's office.

Very few pollsters are regularly surveying voting intention in the apple isle, but the most recent poll from Enterprise Marketing and Research Services (EMRS) turned heads when it recorded a significant slump for the Liberals, and Labor leading the statewide primary voting intention for the first time since 2009.

EMRS is owned by Font PR — a firm with extensive Liberal Party links.

Labor's support was roughly steady statewide at 31 per cent and, mirroring trends seen nationally, there was a big shift towards independents and minor parties.

Under Tasmania's electoral system, it is nigh on impossible to convert primary votes like that into majority government.

The state uses the same electoral boundaries as the federal parliament, with each of the state's five electorates choosing seven members.

To win majority government, a party needs at least three seats per electorate, and a fourth in three of them. 

Getting to four almost certainly requires a vote above 40 per cent, a tall order in our current era of fragmented parties.

The EMRS poll recorded the biggest falls in Liberal support in the north and north-west, putting their third member in each of Bass and Braddon at risk. 

To that end, former federal MP Bridget Archer has now been recruited (pending a pre-selection process) in the hopes her personal profile will help prevent losses.

The Liberals are looking to defend their existing 14 seats but would need to see a turnaround during the campaign to make gains.

Labor currently holds 10 seats, two in each electorate. The opposition will be looking to improve its position in all seats. 

A gain of one in each electorate would get the party to 15 in parliament, and give it some potential paths to government that don't involve talking to the Greens (something Dean Winter has been keen to avoid).

Election results are never uniform, but to give you an idea, a uniform statewide vote of 31 per cent would represent Labor winning roughly 2.5 quotas in each seat.

Tasmanian elections are also highly dependent on the candidates. 

Labor has lost former leader Rebecca White in Lyons, who easily topped the vote there last year.

Speaker Michelle O'Byrne's decision not to run means Labor has also lost its biggest draw card in Bass.

In short, there is a lot of uncertainty, and both major parties could face challenges, especially in the north.

Is another election about a stadium an own goal?

This election (again) presents the peculiar scenario of a campaign likely to (again) be dominated by plans for an AFL stadium that voters aren't in love with, which the major parties are united behind.

In May, EMRS found a growing minority of voters ranking the stadium their most important election issue, and its post-budget polling found support for the stadium enabling legislation deep underwater in all five electorates.

Despite that, the leaders of both major parties are committed to the new Hobart stadium, with Dean Winter declaring over the weekend, "we are absolutely committed to the stadium", and the premier affirming the stadium is a rock solid guarantee, when asked by reporters.

This steadfast support by the major parties is likely to motivate anti-stadium minor parties and independents who may well be pivotal in picking the next Tasmanian Premier.

That's if they can get elected, because while the polling suggests there's an opportunity for new crossbenchers to join the parliament, they're also disadvantaged more than major parties by a snap election. 

It's a lot of work to get a campaign off the ground, and they only have a matter of days to do it.

So, who will run?

Three members were elected under the Jacqui Lambie Network last year, with two later leaving the party to sit as independents, but Lambie is not endorsing candidates this time around. 

Will they all run again, and have they done enough to secure re-election without the Lambie brand name?

There's also the newly registered Tasmanian Nationals promising to field candidates including former Liberal John Tucker. 

The party has never been that successful in the state, but is looking to carve out a space among the minor parties.

Further south, independent Peter George has put up his hand to run in Franklin after a strong showing in the federal election. 

What will the field look like in Clark, where there's never a shortage of independent candidates?

And who else might join the fray? 

Meanwhile, the Greens, having won 1.58 quotas in Franklin last year, would love to pick up a second MP there and grow the size of their party room.

It could be that voters start to drift back towards the major parties as the campaign gets going. 

This election could resolve the political instability and deliver a government that can run a full term. Equally, it may not resolve much at all.

When combined with the current trends in voting, Tasmania's electoral system tends to create hung parliaments.

Making those parliaments work, with all the careful negotiation required between parties, requires a different kind of political culture than we see on the mainland.

As Labor member and speaker Michelle O'Byrne said in her valedictory speech: "If minority government is the way of the future, then it requires us all to behave differently".

This snap election may well bring 11 years of Liberal government in the state to an ignominious end. 

But in a state with a history of long-running Labor governments, it's far from clear if this election will usher in a new era of stable Tasmanian politics.

But let's not get too ahead of ourselves. 

As we've spectacularly seen recently in federal politics, a lot can change in an election campaign.