Crown prince Reza Pahlavi on US military intervention in Iran and how a post Islamic Republic 'transition' would work

As the United States and Iran depart their third round of nuclear talks amid growing fears of another possible war in the Middle East, one man is hoping the US will launch a targeted attack on Iran, regardless of whether or not they reach a deal.

Reza Pahlavi, the exiled crown prince of Iran, has spent almost 50 years living abroad, serving as a rallying — but at times polarising — figure for opponents of Iran's regime.

In his view, if the US strikes the Iranian regime's nuclear facilities and apparatus, that could further weaken it and give Iran's people the chance to rise again.

He says that is something that many of Iran's people have been demanding since nationwide protests broke out in late December and early January, only to be met with brutal force by Iran's Islamist rulers. 

"The Iranian people have shown tremendous resilience, and as you witnessed last month … people on the streets were bravely chanting against the regime, only to be crushed by this regime that has to literally wage military war against its own people."

Mr Pahlavi has spent the past few decades positioning himself as the person to lead Iran into secular democracy should the current regime fall.

He is not the only force opposing Iran's ayatollahs, but his support appears to have soared among Iran's citizens, especially in the recent protests against the regime.

Fed up with the country's economic woes and rampant corruption, people on the ground and from their apartment balconies were heard shouting "Javid shah!" — "Long live the shah!"

And despite the regime's violent crackdown that is estimated to have killed tens of thousands of protesters, the chant has continued in recent days across some universities in Iran. 

Mr Pahlavi has consistently urged Washington not to spend time negotiating with Tehran's clerical rulers on a nuclear deal, and points out that "Iranians haven't died for nuclear negotiation". 

He says he has had meetings in recent days and weeks with US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and others in the US administration who seem receptive to his message that "the real threat is the regime itself". 

"If you eliminate the regime, you eliminate at once all the problems we've been facing, including the nuclear threat," Mr Pahlavi said.

"Radicalism, terrorism, nuclear threat, regional instability ... will be evaporating instantly the minute this regime is no longer there.

In his years abroad, Mr Pahlavi has been rallying supporters, and more recently, he's been advocating for foreign intervention in Iran. 

For many Iranians, some who never lived under the monarchy, Mr Pahlavi espouses democratic and secular values that they have been denied under Iran's theocracy. 

His critics have questioned whether Mr Pahlavi — who has not lived in Iran for nearly 50 years and who does not have the firm endorsement of US President Donald Trump — can seriously position himself as Iran's future leader.

Some experts have also criticised his vision for Iran's future, saying the "transition plan" he has endorsed would give him too much power.

But he told the ABC the fact that people are chanting his name shows he has their support — and the time for change is now.

How Reza Pahlavi has framed himself as a transitional leader

Mr Pahlavi is no ideologue like Ayatollah Khomeini, the man who overthrew the shah in 1979 and replaced the monarchy with an Islamist regime.

At the time, the then-prince was 18 and had just finished high school.

He was undergoing military training as a fighter jet pilot in the United States and was supposed to return home to Iran, given his position as heir to the Pahlavi throne.

But instead, prince Pahlavi became the exiled crown prince of Iran and has remained in the US ever since. He is fluent in English and French, in addition to his native Persian. 

Mr Pahlavi remains staunchly opposed to Islamists and believes in the separation between church and state.

And unlike previous revolutionaries, Mr Pahlavi is not part of any militia or organised internal political movement.

He is liberal and has for decades been advocating for a secular democracy in Iran, for fundamental human rights, and for a national referendum to determine Iran's future system of government.

Mr Pahlavi says his legitimacy does not come from being a descendant of the Iranian dynasty, but rather from popular calls inside Iran for him to step in. 

He has framed himself as a transitional figure rather than a permanent ruler, though how long he will remain in power remains unclear. 

In his view, regime change would be a historic chance for freedom — he often likens it to tearing down the Berlin Wall.

Asked how soon he would return if the regime collapsed, and what legitimacy he thinks he will have without international backing and without substantial regime defections, he says: "I'll be there as soon as it is possible."

"I'd like to be there. Even if it means that it's before the regime's collapse, and we are working on different ideas and scenarios regarding that. 

How Pahlavi thinks the US and its allies could weaken Iran's regime

To enable a secular democratic state to flourish, Mr Pahlavi argues that the United States and Europe must end all negotiations with Iran's rulers and put "maximum pressure" on the regime by way of sanctions and military intervention.

Then, if the regime falls, he says he will step in to support a democratic transition for Iran's people.

Irrespective of whether the US strikes, Mr Pahlavi believes "the Iranian people will continue their fight". 

"But such an intervention would only help us hasten the regime's collapse, would give people a chance to go back to the streets once the elemental repression has been eliminated," he said.

Aside from military intervention he has previously said that overthrowing the regime would involve neutralising the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), cracking down on illicit oil "ghost tankers" that fund the regime, expelling Tehran's agents and diplomats, freezing assets of regime elites, improving Iranians' internet access, and demanding release of political prisoners.

He called the Australian government's decision to list the IRGC as a terrorist organisation and expel Iran's ambassador "a much-needed step".

But he added that the Australian government should go further and support his cause.

Perhaps no platform has elevated Mr Pahlavi's message more than the 2026 Munich Security Conference. This high-profile event has become a space for those wanting to challenge Iran's Islamist rulers and call out their human rights abuses on the world stage. 

Also attended by US senator Lindsey Graham, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, many spoke of the Islamic Republic's recent atrocities against protesters, the ramp in arrests, forced confessions and executions, as well as the potential of regime change.

Mr Pahlavi took part in a widely publicised town hall moderated by CNN's Christiane Amanpour, who raised questions about his domestic appeal inside Iran. 

Mr Pahlavi was later, during a press conference, given a chance to outline his vision for Iran's transition, with unprecedented support from the Iranian diaspora. 

As the conference was in full swing, Mr Pahlavi designated February 14 as a Global Day of Action and called on Iranians abroad to rally. 

From Munich to Melbourne, Los Angeles to Toronto, and beyond, more than 1 million diaspora Iranians held demonstrations in support of the "Lion and Sun Revolution".

It was a remarkable show of unity, and while divisions continue exist in the diaspora, as they do between diverse groups in Iran, this time it was not just staunch monarchists backing Mr Pahlavi as the best person to lead a democratic transition.

"I'm happy to see that the needle is beginning to shift."

Mehrzad Boroujerdi, a professor at the University of Missouri of Science and Technology, says Reza Pahlavi has "symbolic capital" in that he inherits the legacy of the Pahlavi dynasty with his grandfather and father. He says this is why Iranians chant his name. 

But he says the crown prince, as well as other lesser-known Iranian opposition figures, also face serious challenges in leading and still lack "organisational muscle" on the ground in Iran.

"One crucial element in any opposition group is going to be some of the ethnic forces in Iran — the Kurds, the Baluchis, and others," he says.

"And again, we are seeing that tension between these two camps in terms of what Reza Pahlavi is insisting on and what some of these groups are standing for."

Call for Iran's military to defect and help build Iran's future

Mr Pahlavi has called on Iran's military, police, and officials to defect and side with Iran's people rather than what he calls a "dying" regime. He often refers to Iran's system as a "sinking ship".

He has directed his message at Iran's military commanders, saying they have a choice to redeem themselves and "save your lives and the lives of your families by joining the people" and to take part in "building Iran's future" once the regime falls.

Last year, he set up a formal defection platform for regime insiders, security personnel and members of the civil bureaucracy.

A group he works closely with, the National Union for Democracy in Iran (NUFDI) — which has long been lobbying Washington to help the Iranian people overthrow Iran's regime and replace it with a secular democracy — has said "tens of thousands have applied to this platform".

Asked to confirm this number, the vetting process, and whether any come from the regime's elite, Mr Pahlavi answered: "You will have some key elements that are part of the defectors."

"Some of them … are members of the military or paramilitary forces, some of them are in the civilian sector, part of bureaucracy," he added.  

"I cannot divulge some names right now, but [they] could be quite prominent elements that have had it with this regime."

He claims many within the regime want to defect, but says "time is running out for those who have to decide what side of this fence they are going to stand on".

And for those in the regime "who have their hands soaked with the blood of the Iranian people", he said there would be consequences.

"They [Iran's rulers] will have to account in the court of law tomorrow and be answerable for their crimes against humanity," he said.

Professor Boroujerdi agrees with Mr Pahlavi's assessment that overthrowing the regime in Iran will require defectors.

 "You have to ask yourself, if I am confronting a brutal regime, like the Islamic Republic, do I have, do my followers have the stomach?" he said.

"Do they have the muscle … to be able to stand day in and day out, to fight against this type of a regime?"

But despite Mr Pahlavi's optimism about US intervention, Professor Boroujerdi thinks it's unlikely that the Trump administration would force regime change.

"There might be a military attack. They might be degrading the capabilities of the Islamic Republic, but I'm not convinced that they want to go all the way to bring about regime change," he said.

"So sooner or later, once this crisis is over, we get back to the same old scenario of … the Iranian society pushing back against a truly brutal regime that has suppressed them for the last 47 years."

Pahlavi's plan for the first 100-180 days 

Mr Pahlavi has set out a plan for various stages of a transition, which first focuses on stabilising the country and its economy should the regime collapse.

The Iran Prosperity Project, endorsed by Mr Pahlavi and funded by NUFDI, aims to provide a roadmap for reconstructing Iran after the Islamic Republic's fall.

"Many governments have been so fixated with the status quo for years that very few of them are thinking about the day after," Mr Pahlavi said.

"We have ideas and plans."

The plan is built on the premise that there will be "maximum defections", which he believes would prevent chaos similar to what happened in Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein.

Often referred to as the "Emergency Booklet", this so-called blueprint for a transition is structured in three distinct phases.

The first phase, which covers the first 100 to 180 days post-regime change, seeks to maintain economic stability and ensure essential services.

In this period, a national referendum would be held to allow the Iranian people to determine the fate of former leaders and to choose their preferred system of government.

The first phase of the plan assumes that everyone will rally behind the crown prince right after the collapse.

But Iran's opposition has long been split into numerous factions, including monarchists, republicans, leftists, as well as groups formed within ethnic minorities, including Kurds, Baluchis and Arabs.

If previous revolutions in Iran are anything to go by, they often come with great challenges far beyond what this initial blueprint can fully account for.

Mariam Memarsadeghi is an Iranian-American activist advocating regime change in Iran that leads to a democracy. She is based in Washington and is a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.

She told ABC News that while Mr Pahlavi has made his democratic intentions very clear, "if Iran is to transition from a very brutal totalitarianism to an open society where everyone has equal rights and dignity, rhetoric will not be enough".

"Democratic institutions, processes, and norms will need to emerge, as well as a civil society that proudly and securely reflects the pluralism of the Iranian nation," she said.

"For this to happen, Pahlavi needs to show his practical commitments in the here and now, by drawing clear, firm lines around discourse and practices that he considers liberal and those he considers harmful to the country's democratic development.

"Right now, he is tolerating a high level of authoritarian instinct in the people he has chosen to have closest to him.

"As far as transition planning goes, he is committing to a process that gives himself unchecked power for the transition phase.

"Considering how precarious Iran will be during transition, there is reason to pause and ask about guarantees that this interim, emergency framework will not become permanent."

Can Pahlavi lead a smooth democratic transition and exit? 

How long Mr Pahlavi would remain on board to assist with the transition is unclear.

The Pahlavi-endorsed blueprint's phase two — the "Establishment Phase" — suggests that a newly elected government would establish basic democratic institutions and prepare for free elections. 

The country, the blueprint says, will also begin to draft a new constitution with strong democratic institutions to support the new government in the long term.

Whether that system is a monarchy or republic, Mr Pahlavi says it is up to Iranians to decide. 

Under Mr Pahlavi's blueprint, the third phase is dedicated to long-term economic reconstruction. 

Professor Boroujerdi says while the transition plan has "some very good points", it concentrates power in Mr Pahlavi's hands.

"I think the worry that a lot of people have is that the worst thing that can happen is that the Islamic Republic is overthrown and … the opposition would not be able to hold the state together. That a period of chaos and anarchy emerges," he said.

"That's the sort of the worst case scenario that deserves some serious attention, in my view, in light of [what] unfortunately what has happened in our neighbouring states like Iraq, like Syria, like Afghanistan."

Who ultimately becomes Iran's new leader — and when Mr Pahlavi exits his transitional role to allow someone else to assume permanent leadership — is a question he leaves open.

"The minute this happens, the first elections of the first parliament of the future democratic system will be elected, and so will the first government of such a democratic system. 

"And that's the time that the transitional government will pretty much come to an end and turn over control and the response quickly to the newly elected parliament and the environment people will by then have chosen their future leaders. 

"That will be my job accomplished, and that has always been my finish line from the day I started 46 years ago."