Who can best predict the 2026 Oscar winners — a mathematician or a critic?

Friday 13 MarchFri 13 Mar 2026 at 6:39pm

Two black men look worried in a film scene. — Michael B. Jordan and Miles Caton star in Ryan Coogler's Sinners, which is nominated for a record 16 Academy Awards. (Supplied: Warner Bros. Pictures)

It's time for the annual Academy Awards tradition where we ask a film critic and a mathematician to pull out their crystal balls and tea leaves and tell us who they think will take home the big Oscars.

While the first showdown was a draw, our resident mathematician took home the chocolates the following year, and then did it again last year by the narrowest of margins.

Returning as carryover champ is Ben Zauzmer, an American maths whiz who penned the book Oscarmetrics: The Math Behind The Biggest Night in Hollywood, and whose computations are sought out every year by The Hollywood Reporter.

Zauzmer analyses other award ceremonies, past Oscar-winner trends and other factors to build up a mathematical profile of each Academy Award category.

This year's challenger is Melbourne-based critic Sonia Nair, whose writing has been published by the ABC, The Age, The Guardian, Time Out Melbourne, Kill Your Darlings and The Big Issue, among others.

Wait, how do I watch the Oscars this year?

In Australia, you can catch the red carpet action from 9:30am AEDT on Monday and the ceremony from 11am AEDT on Channel 7 and 7Plus, with an encore screening at 9pm AEDT.

Now, on to the ultimate battle between mathematician and critic.

Actor Leonardo DiCaprio holds up a rifle while standing next to a car in a film scene. — Leonardo DiCaprio stars in Best Picture nominee One Battle After Another. (Supplied: Warner Bros. Pictures)

Best picture

The critic says: Sinners

One Battle After Another is the safe bet and frontrunner after its sweep of precursor awards, but a late surge for Sinners has me hoping against hope that this transcendent, electrifying, soulful vampire horror film set in 1930s Mississippi will pick up this year's big gong.

The mathematician says: One Battle After Another

What Sinners accomplished in breaking the all-time [record with 16 Oscar] nominations is incredibly impressive, and my model sees it in second place. But Paul Thomas Anderson's film (One Battle After Another) enjoyed too dominant an awards season run — Directors Guild, Producers Guild, BAFTAs, Critics' Choice, Golden Globes, and many, many more — for any other film to come out ahead in the data.

Best director

The critic says: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)

It's a return to form for 14-time Oscar nominee PTA with his star-studded, pleasingly absurd, seemingly of-its-time blockbuster One Battle After Another, and I expect him to continue his sweep by snagging his first Oscar win.

The mathematician says: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)

Much like Best Picture, the top two are One Battle After Another and Sinners (helmed by Ryan Coogler). But Coogler's most compelling argument in the top category — that his film won the Actor Award for Best Cast — isn't quite as relevant in the Best Director race.

Two identical twins in 1930s garb stand outside a barn. — Michael B. Jordan plays identical twins Smoke and Stack in Sinners. (Supplied: Warner Bros.)

Best actor

The critic says: Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)

Even if Timothée Chalamet hadn't angered nearly everyone with his condescending appraisal of ballet and opera as dated art forms — which apparently happened after voting closed — I believe this is late favourite Michael B. Jordan's to lose, particularly after winning at the Actor (formerly SAG) Awards for his astonishingly textured portrayals of identical twin brothers Smoke and Stack in Sinners.

The mathematician says: Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)

My model sees this as the single closest race of the year. Not only is Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) just 0.9 per cent behind Jordan, but Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) is also over 20 per cent to win. Might as well flip a coin to fill out your Oscar pool on this one.

A woman sits at a table full of debris — Jessie Buckley has won a Golden Globe and a Critics' Choice award for her performance as Agnes in Hamnet. (Supplied: Universal)

Best actress

The critic says: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)

Two-time nominee Jessie Buckley is an absolute shoo-in for this, and so thinks every judge of every major film award in the world — the Critics' Choice, Golden Globes, BAFTA and the Actor Awards. If you heard Buckley's guttural, earth-shattering cry of grief in her depiction of Shakespeare's wife Agnes in Hamnet, you'd get why.

The mathematician says: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)

She dominated the biggest and most predictive award ceremonies, the only actor or actress to do so this season. It was a moving and heartbreaking performance, and one that's as safe a bet as any nominee this Sunday night.

Best supporting actor

The critic says: Sean Penn (One Battle after Another)

As much as I'd love the GOAT Delroy Lindo to win for his turn as alcoholic crooner Delta Slim in Sinners, Sean Penn keeps snagging the awards in this category for his visceral turn as the repulsive Colonel Lockjaw in One Battle After Another, and so he's my pick.

The mathematician says: Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)

Only seven people have won three or more Oscars for acting (Katharine Hepburn holds the lead with four wins), and Sean Penn is looking to become the eighth. However, he hardly swept through awards season, and plenty of strong competitors abound, starting with Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value).

A black woman wearing a blue dress standing at a bench, eyes downcast as she lights a candle — Wunmi Mosaku is nominated for an Oscar for her portrayal of Annie in Sinners. (Supplied: Warner Bros)

Best supporting actress

The critic says: Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)

This is the awards category that's most up for grabs — Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) and Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) have each picked up this award at various ceremonies preceding the Oscars. Although my personal favourite is Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas as the most eldest sister-coded youngest sibling in Sentimental Value, I'm picking Mosaku for this.

The mathematician says: Amy Madigan (Weapons)

No-one is a clear frontrunner here, and I wouldn't argue with anyone predicting Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) or Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners). After all, it's been 17 years since the last time someone won this category for a film with no other nominations. Still, the wins at the Actor Awards and Critics' Choice Awards make her a weak statistical frontrunner.