China unveils next round of green energy ambitions in five-year plan

In China's vast deserts, its green energy revolution is in plain view.

Solar panels stretch across the nation's sun-beaten north, helping power an economy that is embracing renewables at speed.

China is adopting green energy at a scale hard to imagine for many other countries, installing 446 gigawatts of it in 2025 — more than the rest of the world combined, according to Australian think tank Climate Energy Finance.

But it remains the world's largest carbon emitter and is working towards a 2030 deadline to reach peak emissions.

Observers say energy security has weighed on the next round of green ambitions outlined in the China's latest five-year plan, which was adopted at the annual two sessions conference last week.

"This signals China's intention to further reduce its dependency on oil, 70 per cent of which is imported."

The United States' recent actions in Venezuela and Iran, two of China's key oil suppliers, have also influenced its outlook, said Tim Buckley, director of Climate Energy Finance.

"Countries [including China] logically will be focused on energy independence," he said.

Here's what China's 15th five-year plan, mapping its economic development between 2026-2030, says about its plans to reduce carbon emissions and transition to green energy.

China's 'compromise' to reduce carbon

China's carbon emissions have been falling or flat since March 2024, but it is unclear whether they have actually peaked or will grow again.

The five-year plan's main target is to reduce the amount of carbon it emits as it grows its economy — by 17 per cent per unit of GDP from 2026 to 2030.

Combined with the country's economic growth target, the plan allows for emissions to grow about 5-10 per cent until 2030 before falling by 2035, said Jorrit Gosens, an energy transition researcher at the Australian National University.

That would leave emissions at roughly today's levels in a decade, he said.

But China's carbon intensity target has drawn criticism from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, which said it put at risk its Paris Agreement goal of reducing carbon intensity by 65 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030.

Li Shuo, director of China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute in Washington DC, said China was relying less on government-imposed targets and more on the clean technology sectors to help achieve emissions cuts while also driving economic growth.

"Simply put, over the past 20, 10 or even five years, China has faced a conflict between development and emissions: too strict emission cuts would harm economic growth," he said.

"The carbon intensity target was a compromise."

'Haven't seen anything yet'

Signs of China's dominance in clean technology are abundant in Australia, where brands like BYD have expanded their electric vehicle market share and Chinese brands lead among solar panel suppliers.

It's a result of China spending years massively investing in green energy industries.

But Dr Gosens said China's announcement last year did not appear to match the plan's rhetoric of "accelerating" the green transition.

China aimed to install 3,600 gigawatts of solar and wind capacity by the end of 2035 — double the current level.

"Over the next 10 years, that's 180 gigawatts per year [of new capacity]. That's about half the rate that they've been installing solar and wind than they have been over the last two to three years," he said.

Mr Li said the plan struck a cautious tone on promoting wind and solar industries.

"These sectors are already overheating, with overinvestment or excess capacity," he said.

"Development continues, but no extra policy support is proposed, as these industries have matured."

Mr Buckley said China's government had also flagged huge investment in research and development over the next five years.

"So whilst we have seen a phenomenal change in the potential energy system because of China's existing massive investment in research and development, manufacturing, capacity building, technology improvement … I think we haven't seen anything yet."

Christoph Nedopil Wang, a green energy and finance expert at the University of Queensland, said Australia would likely see new renewables technologies emerge from China.

Meanwhile, he expected the price of green technology like EVs to keep falling.

"If there are no extra trade barriers and extra trade risks, I think there's also an opportunity to continue with a low-cost green energy transition supported by Chinese technologies, which from an energy cost perspective is actually quite advantageous," he said.

It would position Australia to better weather oil supply shocks, Dr Nedopil Wang said.

"How little would we care about a global fossil fuel crisis if everything would be electrified and green electricity?" he said.

"We would be less vulnerable."

Beyond more established renewables technology, the plan flags investment in "frontier" technologies like green fuels, nuclear fusion and green hydrogen energy.

The document said China would "promote the green hydrogen industry chain to extend into green ammonia, methanol, and sustainable aviation fuels, and expand the use of hydrogen in transportation, power generation, and industrial sectors."

Mr Li said these sectors were not yet industrialised but "could become key areas in the energy transition".

Why is coal still in the plan?

Renewable energy is expected to meet the growth in China's energy demand over the next couple of years, and the plan says the share of non-fossil fuels in its total energy consumption will grow from 21.7 per cent to 25 per cent.

But while the five-year plan aims to replace 30 million metric tonnes of coal per year with renewable energy and reach peak fossil fuel consumption, it reserves a place for coal and does not impose limits on its use.

Dr Gosens said China was increasingly using coal-fired power to guarantee stable energy supply rather than as the main source of electricity.

"But that's at least the narrative."

The five-year plan also flags an ambition to keep spending on "smart grids" — networks using digital and other advanced technologies to manage electricity — to integrate and stabilise its growing renewable energy supply.

Experts said with China producing 95 per cent of the coal it needed, and coal power generation set to fall, imports including from Australia were set to decline.

"We've got to pivot our world-leading mining industry to produce what China wants," Mr Buckley said.

Observers say China's increasing "electrification" — replacing fossil fuels with renewables — is making it less dependent on oil imports and less vulnerable to supply shocks.

But under its new five-year plan, China will convert some of its coal to oil and other chemicals, to shore up supply.

"That's a very emissions intensive way to produce chemicals, and that's definitely bad news for economy-wide emissions," Dr Gosens said.

"It's not a huge sector, but it's very dirty."

Mr Buckley said energy security and independence were some of China's top priorities in its transition away from fossil fuels.

"At the end of the day, we can't look at China totally with rose tinted glasses," he said.

"Climate change, delivering a liveable planet for their children and their grandchildren is definitely one of the motives, but it's not the only one."