Iranians fear war with Israel and US may end with Islamic regime still in power

When US and Israeli air strikes first tore through the skies over Iran, Yasna*, a dentist in Tehran, felt a rush of optimism.

To her, the explosions sounded like the possible beginning of the end for a regime that had ruled her country with an iron grip for nearly half a century.

But two weeks into the war, that sense of hope is fading.

"The real fear we have is that this war might end in a way that leaves the Islamic regime in power," Yasna said.

"For us, that would be far more terrifying than enduring these attacks … there would be even more killings and our security will be in greater danger than it is now under missile strikes."

Yasna is not alone. Millions of Iranians today find themselves caught in a dangerous vice: opposed to the regime, but not yet feeling like it is safe enough to take to the streets to make their voices heard.

There is also evidence to suggest the constant attacks on Iran are increasing nationalist sentiment and galvanising opposition to the US and Israel, rather than Iran's strict rulers.

US and Israeli officials say their bombardment may be the moment for Iranians who oppose the country's Islamic theocracy to take back control of the government.

US President Donald Trump said, on the first day of the war, that it would probably be their "only chance for generations".

But Iran's regime, determined to survive, is warning anyone who dares to challenge it will pay a hefty price.

There are few clues as to when the US and Israel's aerial attacks will end, although Mr Trump has previously estimated they could last about five weeks.

"What everyone knows at the moment is that people should stay at home until a call is issued. Everyone is still waiting for that call," Yasna said.

"As long as these forces are still armed, people are scared to go into the streets."

But there is no indication this war, which has now killed more than 1,300 people in Iran according to the Red Crescent society, is pushing the regime towards collapse.

In fact, some analysts believe that plan has backfired and is instead uniting hardliners and driving the opposition into hiding.

Kamran Matin is an associate professor of international relations at the University of Sussex who was born in Kurdistan, a vast geo-cultural region that covers parts of Iran, Iraq, Turkey and Syria.

He is critical of the way the attacks have been handled, and the rhetoric being espoused by Reza Pahlavi, the exiled former crown prince of Iran, who is based in the US and has offered himself as a transitional leader under a new government in the country.

"People are extremely anxious and scared. It seems especially for those people who naively thought maybe this will be over quickly also believed in Reza Pahlavi's propaganda and they're becoming disillusioned and, in many cases, quite angry with him actually," Dr Matin said.

"There is risk that this destruction might push some people, not necessarily into the regime's arms, but basically erode that kind of sanguine hope that everything will be quick and the regime will fall."

Mr Pahlavi, the son of Iran's last monarch, is a prominent opposition figure who has long called for the end of the Islamic Republic. His profile has skyrocketed globally in the past year.

In January, he urged Iranians to take to the streets, where protesters were met with a deadly crackdown by security forces.

"What happened to the protesters last January was so bitter, and the memory of it is still fresh for people, that they are afraid," Yasna said. 

"As long as these forces are still armed, people are afraid to go into the streets.

"My opinion is that they must be disarmed before people will be able to return to the streets again."

Could push for regime change backfire?

For Iranians, this war is the latest shock in a relentless nine-month storm of devastation.

The economy was already straining under mounting pressure, with the country still struggling to recover from 12 days of intense fighting with Israel and the US last June.

In January, the violent suppression of nationwide protests by Iran's security forces left thousands dead and the country deeply scarred, intensifying divisions and leaving a lingering sense of trauma.

"People feel politically impotent and they feel that the war has, rather than amplifying their agency, somehow marginalised them," Dr Matin said.

"Because of the bombardment, naturally, people are not going to the streets.

"Donald Trump said, 'Let us do our work and then you come out,' but first of all we don't know when this will be done and, even then, it's not clear to what extent people can organise and face a regime that is now wounded more than before and can be even more brutal."

"So as far as a popular uprising is concerned, I don't see that on the horizon any time soon."

The Iranian regime has sent chilling warnings that defiance on the streets will be met with lethal force. Iran's national police chief has warned that protesters will be treated as "enemies", not just demonstrators, and said security forces are ready "with their hands on the trigger" to defend the regime.

He made clear that anyone seen acting "in line with the enemy's wishes" will be confronted as such. A shopkeeper in Rasht, a city about 300 kilometres north-east of Tehran, near the Caspian Sea, told the ABC regime forces were threatening citizens.

"Even when we call each other by phone, we cannot really share information because we are afraid the calls might be monitored," she said.

"There are many banners across the city stating that filming anywhere is prohibited, and that doing so will be considered cooperation with the Zionist enemy and will be punished."

An office worker in Karaj, a city in north-central Iran, located about 40 kilometres west of Tehran at the foothills of the Alborz Mountains, also told the ABC Iran's government was monitoring people.

"They drive around with loudspeakers from the mosques, shouting slogans," she said.

"They try to spread fear and terror among the people, trying to intimidate them," she said.

On Friday, local time, large anti-Israel demonstrations were held around Iran as part of the annual Al-Quds day of protest.

The state-sponsored festivities are designed to allow people to express solidarity with Palestinians, but this year, it provided an opportunity for the country's regime to flex its muscles and show it still calls the shots.

Large crowds were observed in multiple cities. Iran's government has also been keen to highlight large public displays of mourning for former supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, who was assassinated on the first day of the war.

Foad Izadi, who is a professor at the University of Tehran and a supporter of the current regime, said Mr Trump had unified Iranians more than any politician who was actually in the country could.

"Millions of people have been coming out to protest every night and shouting against Netanyahu and Trump," he said.

"You cannot make a nation do what you want by bombing them."

Mr Pahlavi released a video message this week, urging opponents of the regime to stay home.

"We are now at the decisive stage of our final struggle," he said, saying that for now people should continue to refuse to show up for work, and chant out their windows in the evening to show their unity.

Mr Pahlavi said he would instruct people when they should get on to the streets.

"Await my final call," he said. Despite there being significant opposition to the regime in Iran, it's not clear how many people will answer him.