Impassioned plea from Tasmania's top cop no match for political realities on gun ownership caps

Invoking the name of the first Tasmanian police officer to be killed while serving in more than 100 years makes for quite the impassioned plea.

"You stood with us in the aftermath of the tragic murder of Constable [Keith] Smith, and we now seek your support as we confront the growing risk posed by firearms in our community."

It's a sign of how strongly Tasmania Police Commissioner Donna Adams feels about capping the number of firearms a single person can own.

A newly released letter from the state's top cop to Police Minister Felix Ellis pulls no punches.

Those calls weren't heeded by Mr Ellis, who chose to press ahead with a package of reforms including a buyback scheme and reclassification of some guns.

In the last fortnight he's said caps would be "bad for Tassie" and there is "no evidence behind it".

But it turns out that a push for caps have the full support of the police commissioner — someone who Labor and the Greens both argue should have been the loudest voice in the room.

It also has the backing of the Police Association of Tasmania, which says it's in support of anything it believes will increase officer and community safety.

As the commissioner points out, there are 157,000 registered firearms in Tasmania.

Of gun owners, 9,000 people own six or more firearms.

For regional Tasmanians, that may not come as a surprise — they're a tool of the trade, carry family history, or are necessary for lawful activities like hunting or sport shooting.

For "townies", who rarely see guns day to day, it feels like a lot of guns.

And in the state of the 1996 Port Arthur massacre, guns will always provoke strong emotions.

There's no silver bullet to the political problem they pose.

Labor rolls the dice on gun reform

Commissioner Adams says there are more guns in Australia now than there were in 1996, and that the impact of the reforms brought in since the Port Arthur massacre that killed 35 people has been whittled away.

These are both arguments we've heard from the Greens while calling for caps since the Bondi massacre late last year.

NSW has implemented a cap on the number of guns someone can have to four for recreational shooters, and 10 for primary producers.

Labor's support for caps, however, came as more of a surprise.

In his state of the state reply speech, Labor leader Josh Willie announced his party would work with the crossbench to implement them.

That announcement came just three months after deputy leader Janie Finlay posted to Facebook to say Labor wouldn't be pursuing "changes that restrict the lawful, responsible use of firearms by licensed Tasmanians".

The caps, which Labor wants to bring in by amending the government's bill, has a genuine chance of passing, too.

With Opposition and Greens MPs accounting for fourteen seats, it only needs the support of four of the seven other crossbenchers for it to pass the lower house.

Independent Kristie Johnston is a supporter of caps, while fellow independents Peter George and Helen Burnet could also look upon them favourably.

You can count out Shooters Fishers and Farmers MP and firearms trader Carlo Di Falco, who will be voting no.

Firearms reform dangerous ground

Whether it passes or not, the obvious risk for Labor's regional MPs, including police spokesperson and member for Lyons Jen Butler, is that the policy is remembered the next time they face voters.

Despite the party announcing there would be exceptions to their caps of five guns for hunters, and 10 for primary producers, it hasn't eased concern amongst shooters.

More than 3,500 people have signed a parliamentary e-petition against caps in its first 48 hours.

Government MPs have been fanning those flames, looking to paint Labor as having sold out regional Tasmania.

Mr Ellis calls the plan "baseless" — despite the advice from his police commissioner.

A quick look at his Facebook comments tells you he hasn't escaped from the gun reform debate unharmed either.

Firearms owners are just as avid in their calls for the government to drop its suite of reforms.

No united stance on gun control

In the post-Bondi climate, very little about firearm control is apolitical.

The horrific loss of life led to calls for action on guns.

Some have seen that as punishing law-abiding firearms owners, instead of taking real action on tackling antisemitism.

There was always going to be a lot of opinions when it came to what were the right steps to take.

In Tasmania, the government insists it's taken a "careful, measured and consultative approach" to firearms reform.

In the government's firearms consultative committee, there were firearms dealers, recreational hunters, sporting shooters, farmers and more.

At no stage have they wanted to put firearms owners, seen as more likely to vote conservatively, offside.

But police commissioners don't have to worry about political realities, or voters in Braddon or Lyons.

It's hard to say whether MPs would feel differently if they didn't have to either.