Israel's invasion of Lebanon is pushing a fragile nation to its 'tipping point'

Israel's rapidly expanding invasion of Lebanon will destabilise a country that is already on the brink of collapse.

"This war can really be the tipping point," said Sami Nader, director of the Institute of Political Science at Beirut's Saint Joseph University.

"That's something that is threatening the very existence of this country."

One possible outcome of the invasion is the kind of power vacuum that led to the nation's 15-year civil war in the 1970s and 1980s.

Almost 1 million people have been displaced as Israel bombs southern Beirut and pushes troops into southern Lebanon, in its campaign against the Iran-backed militia, Hezbollah.

Since 2020, Lebanon has been battling a series of crises: COVID-19, an economic collapse, hyper-inflation, an explosion at the city's port that devastated a large part of Beirut, and, since October 7, 2023, conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.

"I think what basically the Israeli operation is doing is weakening the position of the Lebanese government further," says Amin Saikal, a Middle East analyst who works with several Australian universities.

The risk for Israel

The Lebanese civil war, fought from 1974 to 1989, was notable for the destruction of much of Beirut, the massacre of civilians, an explosion of international terrorism and the 1982 Israeli invasion and long occupation.

"Israel has done it before … in 1982 and then again in 2006," Professor Saikal said.

"And in the past, they have not been terribly successful. But this time, it looks like Israel is determined to remain in occupation of southern Lebanon."

Under the terms of a 2024 ceasefire, Lebanese authorities promised to disarm Hezbollah, which has strong support amongst Shia Muslims and is arguably more powerful than the Lebanese state.

The nation's new prime minister, Nawaf Salam, had taken the rare and risky step of actually criticising Hezbollah in early March.

"This is unprecedented," said Mr Nader. "However, the implementation does not match the talk."

Hezbollah began firing missiles at Israel after the assassination of Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28. Israel launched air strikes immediately, and the fighting has not stopped.

"This window of opportunity for the Lebanese government to assert its own control has vanished," Mr Nader said.

"Now Israel is trying to dismantle Hezbollah through its own means."

Israeli media are reporting that ground troops are pushing further into southern Lebanon, and two more divisions have been moved to the northern border in preparation for expanded operations.

Former Israeli diplomat and political adviser Alon Pinkas says Israel does not want a long occupation.

He said that an ongoing Israeli military presence in southern Lebanon carried risk.

"Hezbollah are entrenched in Beirut, which is up north, and they hold most of their missile arsenals, silos and launchers in the north-east of Lebanon in the Bekaa Valley," he said.

Displaced with nowhere to go

In Beirut, parts of the city have become encampments for refugees from the city's south. Hundreds of tents have been erected along the city's celebrated Corniche and on reclaimed land near the city's port.

Aid worker Basma Alloush said many of the city's schools had become shelters for displaced families.

She said 830,000 displaced people have registered with authorities.

"About 130,000 of those have managed to find shelters," Ms Alloush told 7.30.

"Otherwise, we're hearing of families that have made other kinds of makeshift arrangements that are either staying with relatives or friends.

She said those lucky enough to find shelter are finding it in less than ideal places.

"They are schools, they are football stadiums. They're not intended for people to live there for a long time."

Watch 7.30, Mondays to Thursdays 7:30pm on ABC iview and ABC TV