Women's Asian Cup 2026: Matildas' butterfly effect on display in win over China, but their evolution isn't complete

A volley blasted wide, a dive gone wrong, a desperate touch, an impossible angle. 

Individually there are thousands of moments littered during a football match — some inconsequential, others game changing. 

In other words, in a very simplistic interpretation of the butterfly effect, the slightest disruption in a system can create any number of unpredictable changes, or no change at all.

As meteorologist Edward Lorenz mused, "Does the flap of a butterfly's wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?"

So we might ask, "Does Kaitlyn Torpey's lunging poke set off an unforgettable piece of Sam Kerr magic and alter Australian football history?"

Kerr's world-class moment 

The Matildas' 2-1 win over China in the semi-finals of the Women's Asian Cup is a monkey off the back. 

They had not made a final of a major international tournament since the 2018 continental championship, and they still have the memories of semi-final defeats at the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, and more notably, the 2023 Women's World Cup. 

They now have a chance to win their first trophy since the 2010 Asian Cup, facing Japan or South Korea in Saturday's decider in Sydney. 

"We deserve to be playing for a trophy because we've been so close so many times and just fallen short, normally at this hurdle, so we got over it this time," forward Caitlin Foord said.

"We'll give our everything to finally win a trophy together."

This was a victory built on many varying moments, some of which seemed pivotal at first and then fizzled out into obscurity, and others that changed the Matildas' destiny. 

It was an even first half from both teams — exciting, open, entertaining, although not always polished or well executed. 

Fowler's volley over the crossbar early on was one of those moments to be rued, only for Foord to finish off a superbly worked team goal.

It then swung back to rueful territory when Clare Hunt's error led to Mackenzie Arnold conceding a penalty, and Zhang Linyan equalised. 

But as she did in the quarter-final win over North Korea, Kerr conjured up a slice of her special brand of magic to deliver the decisive blow. 

She had been kept uncharacteristically quiet in the first half, largely well contained, as Foord and Mary Fowler channelled most of the attack. 

Until she was given the slightest opening soon after the break, and absolutely tore it apart.

Kerr will get all the plaudits, as she should, but Torpey's touch in the chain of events can't be overlooked either. 

The Matildas were on the counter-attack on the edge of their box, Katrina Gorry slid a pass which looked like it would just be out of Torpey's reach.

But, on her 26th birthday, she slid and got a boot on it to nudge it between the defender's legs. And that's all it took to set the Kerr juggernaut into motion. 

"Top strikers or top forwards are ones that can manage the moments in the game and understand that 'Okay, I'm not involved because the game's a bit long or I'm not getting the service,'" Matildas coach Joe Montemurro said.

"But when that moment comes, she takes that chance. We all see the goals, but watch the movement off the ball.

"That's the making of a world-class player."

The ongoing search for continuity

This was the Matildas' best performance of the tournament so far.

Kyra Cooney-Cross was a massive inclusion in the midfield, making her first start of the tournament. 

She showed signs of her peak, where she can control and direct play, while Katrina Gorry seemed to enjoy having her partner in crime back, getting back to her dogged, energetic ways. 

After a quiet outing against North Korea, Fowler was dangerous and had her chances to break the game open. 

And Torpey embraced her opportunity to hold onto the left-back spot, with Steph Catley seamlessly slotting into centre-back. 

The depth in the team is also paying dividends, with the substitutes all starters on any other day. 

Winonah Heatley's injection into the game in the second half in place of Clare Hunt paid off, thanks to her ability to beat China's press.

Clare Wheeler was her usual industrious self in the midfield, and Amy Sayer keeps showing that her time as a locked-in starter can't be too far off. 

There was even a nice moment of sentimentality when Emily van Egmond came on in stoppage time, for her record-breaking 170th Matildas cap. 

There were many fierce physical battles, with the Steel Roses ultimately pushing them a bit too far as they tried to force their way back into the contest. 

And when the visitors were at their most desperate, the Australians managed to pin them in their own third and snuffed out anything China concocted late. 

For all the positives, and there were many, the Matildas came away buoyant, but also unsatisfied. 

Montemurro pointed out the issue of dropping back deep at times, rather than continuing to advance and take control. 

There were also defensive susceptibilities on the counter-attack, or to the long ball.

It wasn't a beautiful game for all 90 minutes, though it was an effective one, but the manager wants it all. 

"We know deep down in our hearts that we need to be better, we need to be more continuous in terms of the way we play, but we found something again and we got through," Montemurro said.

After the game against North Korea, where the team embodied the antithesis of his philosophy, he was largely complimentary, stating they need to do whatever it takes to win in tournament football. 

But he was far more critical after a much better performance against China, maybe foreshadowing what is expected to be a showdown with the indomitable Japan in the final, where close enough just won't cut it. 

"After we score for some reason, I don't know, we tend to drop off a little bit," Montemurro said.

"And when you've got another three metres to cover or another four metres to cover, it makes it hard, especially with ball-playing teams. 

"We lifted the line a little bit, we allowed the midfielders to push a little bit higher, and we were getting on the ball. 

"We just need to find that continuity of doing that more often as part of our DNA. 

"To play modern football, we have to be proactive, we have to be high, and we have to be braver with the ball."

China's coach, former Matildas boss Ante Milicic, was proud but downcast about his side's effort. 

"We understood it would be a difficult game against a quality opponent, and I thought we were brave," he said. 

"We tried to press the opposition at times, but in the end, I think they have that individual quality, and that was probably the difference."

Rallying cry for Sydney

It's difficult to see too many personnel changes for the final, with Montemurro giving a good indication of his best XI in the knockout stage so far. 

Torpey seems likely to remain at left-back with Catley in central defence, although Heatley could replace Hunt as the other centre-back, thanks to her efforts when she came on. 

Hayley Raso could also come into calculations. 

She missed two games due to concussion and was not selected for the semi, but is a handy option to bring on the biggest stage. 

For now, there is the rallying call for the public to get on the bandwagon, if they haven't already. 

Especially since only 35,170 fans filled the 60,000-seat Perth Stadium, it's hoped the 80,000-capacity Stadium Australia will sell out.

"Watch the game with pride," Montemurro said in his message to the sporting public.

"Watch the game with the beauty of what the game is, and also what these amazing role models have done for not only women's sport, but I think for the sporting landscape in Australia. 

"We just want a packed house in Sydney."